More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030
As of 00:51 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030” at 13%. The market has M$1 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
unconventionally conceived = conceived through IVF, or another method which isn't a natural man + woman + in-body conception + implantation scheme. i.e. there is some intervention which changes the path, location, constituency, existence, or selection of the sperm or egg such as filtering sperm, artificially selecting sperm, temporarily removing the egg or fetus, exposing either of them to foreign agents for genetic/health purposes, or similar divergence from the conventional method with significant effects. Judging timespan: if such a condition holds for net children born over at least 6 months before the judging date.
