Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Manifold outcomes for "What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?" are Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)  95%, Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British 95%, Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4" 94% — 5 of 87 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/Np0LZdLtKZnWdCu3ZmFA. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?

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