Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026". Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed. Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes. Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim. A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes. Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes. Feel free to ask questions in the comments to clarify remaining ambiguities.
