Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

·Politics

Russia

6%

▲ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$403.6k

vol 24h

$2.9k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.