event4 outcomes

Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Polymarket·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027

As of 03:13 UTC on 4 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 4 markets in “Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31, 2026” at 3%, “September 30, 2026” at 0% and “December 31, 2025” at 0%. The event has $13.8k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Polymarket.

vol cum

$5.6M

vol 24h

$13.8k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

PoliticsWorldUkraineGeopoliticsPolandNATO

marketselected outcome

December 31, 2026

rank #1

Russia

3¢

▼ 0.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$487.8k

vol 24h

$13.8k

spread

0.00

ends

Jan 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

timeline

opened · Jun 30, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

December 31, 2026 · prices over time

−24h

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