Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?"?

Accepted Answer

"YES" is currently 54% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2040.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/OqZssWk8CTPPOQIBig0R. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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