This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Manifold·Other

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030” at 99%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.

This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2030. This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is. Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.