By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

·Science and Technology

Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously. Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise. If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert. If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early. (GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)