Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?” at 40%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
"Apparent sex" here includes voice timbre, facial appearance, body shape, and genitals. It does not include reproductive system, DNA, hormornes, or qualia. The procedure needs to be good enough that a stranger can't tell someone has undergone the procedure just by looking at them. "Easy" means it's not significantly more prohibitive for the middle class than other big life changes such as moving, getting a new job, etc. In order for this to resolve YES, there must be many people who are not super-wealthy and have changed their sex back and forth several times, being largely indistiguishable from people born as that sex each time.