What is the current probability for "Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?"?

Current Manifold odds for "Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?": Other 58%, No one by end of 2026 16%, David Sacks 6% (top 3 of 19 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/QdhyScACtC. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

↗

event19 outcomes

Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?

·Politics·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

M11k

vol 24h

M10.5k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 19

[image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job. If Trump announces multiple individuals to co-lead the role, the market will resolve proportionally among those named. If no official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No one by end of 2026". The primary sources of truth will be official White House statements, Donald Trump's verified Truth Social posts, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times).

donald-trumpus-politicsaitrumps-second-termpolitics-default

marketselected outcome

Other

rank #1

United States

58¢

▲ 4.9pp

24h change

vol cum

M2.1k

vol 24h

M51

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

timeline

opened · Sep 20, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Other · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history