Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035
As of 06:52 UTC on 7 Sep 2026, Manifold prices “Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035” at 39%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Kalshi and Polymarket.
This is a market about whether a preserved human brain will be digitized (at the resolution of synapses, and with a fidelity estimated at >90% of synapses). This is not for doing anything with the data, just getting it onto a computer. To qualify, the dataset would need to include: the whole connectome (e.g. neurons reconstructed from scanned slices), approximate synapse strength (this comes through in electron microscopy, and certain molecular labeling regimes), the cell type (e.g. Glutamate vs GABA vs dopamine, etc), and the degree of myelination of axons. I believe that this would constitute sufficient information for an accurate emulation of the scanned brain, but determining whether that is true isn't part of this question.
