What is the current probability for "Bitcoin price in 2026?"?

The contested Manifold outcomes for "Bitcoin price in 2026?" are $55K 33%, $50K 26%, $45K 19% — 5 of 22 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/QpnZhLQU6u. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Manifold

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event22 outcomes

Bitcoin price in 2026?

·Crypto·ends Jan 1, 2027

vol cum

M67.5k

vol 24h

M1k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 22

The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds/below listed price in USD at any point in 2026, based on data from Coinbase. The price must be reflected as the high/low price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If Bitcoin does not hit listed price during 2026, the market resolves “No.” Primary source (API) Example: https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?start=2026-02-05T22:00:00Z&end=2026-02-06T02:00:00Z&granularity=60 Required URL parameters: start — ISO8601 UTC start time (e.g., 2026-02-05T22:00:00Z) end — ISO8601 UTC end time (e.g., 2026-02-06T02:00:00Z) granularity — seconds per candle (e.g., 60 for 1-minute bars) Response: [ time, low, high, open, close, volume ] curl -X GET "https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?start=2026-02-05T22:00:00Z&end=2026-02-06T02:00:00Z&granularity=60" Resolution Date & Time: December 31, 2025, at 23:59 PT, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses listed price at any time during the month. Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Data Source Specification: The creator will use the Coinbase API (https://api.coinbase.com/v2/prices/BTC-USD/historic) as the authoritative data source for determining exact Bitcoin prices, rather than relying on visual charts or rounded displays on Coinbase's website interface. Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): API Data Takes Precedence Over All Other Sources: The creator will strictly rely on the Coinbase API for price resolutions, even when other data sources (including Coinbase's own website interface, advanced trader charts, or TradingView) show different values. In cases where the API shows a rounded price (e.g., 60000.005 rounds to 60000.01), the market will resolve based on the API's reported value, not the exact threshold price. Update 2026-02-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Specific API Endpoint for 1-Minute Candle Data: The creator will use the Coinbase Exchange API endpoint https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles with granularity=60 (1-minute candles) to determine the exact high/low prices for resolution, rather than other Coinbase API endpoints or data sources.

bitcoincrypto-speculationpricesbitcoin-maxi

marketselected outcome

$60K

rank #1

100¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M12.2k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jan 1, 2027

timeline

opened · Jan 2, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

$60K · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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