Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
As of 23:20 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?” at 29%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035. Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect. A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions. Update 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.