Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?
2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337 In line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs. Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed. The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in. 2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc 2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU 2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA Update 2026-09-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The evaluation runs must be performed using random seeds (standard seed generation) rather than set or fixed seeds. Update 2026-09-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * Using the keepInventory game rule is disqualifying.