When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/1/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/SZhqUCLZlZ. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

soontrade on Manifold

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event6 outcomes

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Q: What is the current probability for "Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026"?

Current Manifold odds for "Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026": Cohere 2%, Perplexity 2%, Hugging Face 2% (top 3 of 6 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

·Business·ends Jul 1, 2026

vol cum

M231.7k

vol 24h

M29.3k

outcomes

ends

Jul 1, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/31/tim-cook-apple-ai-acquisitions.html Resolves Yes if: A binding purchase/merger agreement between both parties is signed into writing. Even if eventually blocked by courts for whatever reason. Resolves to credible mainstream reporting of such a deal being finalised. Doesn't qualify for Yes: -Acquires the leadership and senior staff, but not the company. -Term sheet level agreement that isn't yet binding (eg. OpenAi and Windsurf). Comment companies that I should add.

businesstechnology-defaultopenaielon-musk-14d9d9498c7eai

marketselected outcome

Cohere

rank #1

2¢

vol cum

M30.7k

vol 24h

—

spread

n/a

ends

Jul 1, 2026

timeline

opened · Jul 1, 2026closing sooncloses · Jul 1, 2026

Cohere · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history