When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
As of 07:24 UTC on 23 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 11 markets in “When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?” on Manifold are “Before 2030-01-01” at 75%, “Before 2029-07-01” at 69% and “Before 2029-01-01” at 67%. The event has M$50 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
The full-scale war in Ukraine started on 2022-02-24. As of June 2024 there haven’t been any ceasefire agreements covering the whole theater of war. This market will resolve positively as soon as a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire is established, lasting for at least a month and covering the whole territory of Ukraine and Russia. Minor confrontations that don’t lead to an escalation do not count as breaking the ceasefire. The market is also resolved positively if one of the following happens: Ukraine is fully conquered by Russia (or vice vera) A formal ceasefire is not established, but the total number of casualties in one month from both sides falls below 10. For the purposes of the resolution date the beginning of the ceasefire is used. I.e. if the ceasefire is established on 2024-12-15, “Before 2025-01-01” will resolve to YES, but the option will stay open until 2025-01-15 to verify that the ceasefire is held for the whole month. I do not bet on my own markets
