Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which of the Millenium Prize problems will be solved next?": Navier-Stokes 90%, Yang-Mills Mass Gap 4%, Birch Swinnerton Dyer Conjecture 2% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2041.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/X1Z162TgNbfHn1SYrrYd. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.