Javier Milei - Argentina's president - First Term Mega-market
Javier Milei is bringing a new style of leadership to Argentina. This is a collection of a ton of simple binary markets about what may happen during his first term of four years! Have fun betting even 1m on each, then tune in to your notifications system to get updated as we see how things go over the next few years! Best of luck to Argentina no matter where that resides. Rules Things he did during the entire term, including before creation of this market, all count, based on the beginning of his term; for example, if he has already left Argentina during his presidency, then the claim about him leaving would YES. In general the claims end in Dec 2027 at the normal time of the succession of whoever wins the next election. Most claims relating to a "term" relate to the original planned term of 4 years; if that is changed, we still cover that time period as best we can preserving the intent, which is always to make the claim as "meaningful" as possible. i.e. to avoid resolving on technicalities only a lawyer would care about, but rather, as long as it doesn't go against the written text, to go by what is meant by the term. i.e. if we say "he dies from the bite of a poisonous snake" we would not be pedantic and say "actually, only venomous snakes can kill him; poisonous is a term for something which if you contact/eat it, you can die". To sum up: I prefer the conventional, normal meanings of terms, not privileging the extremely specific biological/legal/etc meanings when they diverge from common speech. Economist data sources: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/12/15/the-worlds-richest-countries-in-2023 [image]https://www.heritage.org/index/visualize?cnts=argentina|unitedstates&src=ranking https://index.goodcountry.org/ https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/rankings https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/rankings state dept travel advisories: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Argentina.html I will find corresponding pages for when the market is closing and use them. All comparison number metrics will use the "at that time" version since the 2023 version may not exist. Regarding the LLM questions, here's a sample. I will average all the outputs (including averaging LLM's output range (e.g. "75-85%" is treated as an 80%), and that final average is the "score". If the LLM repeatedly refuses to do this, we will unfortunately NA. I've linked it to OpenAI; if OpenAI has no public LLM available, or the LLM is not updated at all, then if possible we will use an OpenAI style public LLM or earlier version, or competitor, if data is updated; if no such thing exists, we will NA. LLM Question 1 Prompt: ""Rate Javier Milei's performance in Argentina from 0-100% on these factors: [economics, policy, defense, culture, finance, general leadership] from the perspective of a modern high school history textbook in a private school in Manhattan. [image]LLM Question 2: "For each of these media outlets, please imagine how they might respond to this question: 'please rate Javier Milei's overall performance as president of Argentina on a scale of 0-100%': (The Economist, NY Post, The WSJ, The New Yorker, BBC, Al Jazeera English, Time Magazine, Fox News, Der Spiegel, China Daily, Yomiuri Shimbun, DW, France 24, RT, The Hindu, El Pais, Haaretz, O Globo (brazil), Hindustan Times, The Times UK, Le Figaro, The Jerusalem Post). The result here is the average of their outputs. Updates Since answers are unlinked, I can add more. please suggest anything you'd be interested in, as long as there is some kind of resolution criteria. Resolutions If you think there's doubt about interpretation, or you have found a "loophole", please contact me, either in comments or privately, before sinking a ton of mana into it. If you are right, I won't stop you from profiting; but I also hope to remove some resolution complexity by checking and clarifying meanings and intents first. Thanks for playing. Contest After this market is over, I will give away mana based on whoever has the highest "contest point" score. Score is determined by giving you one point for each of: For every market above: The direction you bought first was in the end the right direction And the price you bought at was <80% (from your pov, YES or NO) And you bought at least 1 mana worth. If you buy more the starting price must be within the limit range. The final price is irrelevant for this purpose. So you can't wait til the outcome is known because the price will be too high (and it's too easy) for you. And once you bet, your original direction for that market is permanent. After that you can buy and sell as you like and it has no effect; once your direction is set its permanent. Note that if you buy in at say 90% you have no direction but if you sell at 90% (IE you're buying NO at 10%) that is equivalent to buying NO at 10% which would set your direction. Example: there is a claim which is at 83% now and you've never bought it either direction. If you buy YES it doesn't count since that's too easy. If you buy NO you pay 17% so it counts as your direction in this claim. Now, if in the end the claim resolves NO, you win one point since you got it cheap and you were right. If it resolves YES you get no points. Make sense? So as time goes by we can calculate the running "contest point" totals and in the end the top winner gets 2500, 2nd place gets 1000 and 3rd, 4th and 5th place gets 500 via managram.
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