Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?
As of 23:20 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will a vaccine against the Andes virus (hantavirus) be tested in humans before the end of 2027?” at 22%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi.
Andes virus is a member of the hantavirus family responsible for the MV Hondius cruise ship outbreak. The only vaccine against hantaviruses in use is Hantavax which targets Hantaan river virus and Seoul virus, both "old world" hantaviruses, causing different symptoms than "new world" hantaviruses like the Andes virus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hantavirus_vaccine) Moderna has been working on mRNA hantavirus vaccine, though this seems to target old world hantaviruses as well: https://brusselssignal.eu/2026/05/korea-university-and-moderna-have-been-working-on-mrna-hantavirus-vaccine-since-2023/ Resolves YES if any officially sanctioned vaccine trial in humans occurs before close date, where: the vaccine has preclinical data suggesting possible efficacy against Andes virus the trial has testing efficacy against Andes virus among its goals As @Cactus noted, there was a vaccine tested earlier (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37380156/). This market will only consider trials that happen after market creation (specifically, that the vaccine is administered to humans after market creation, if the trial started or was designed earlier, it still counts). The results of the trial are not relevant for resolution. I will not bet on this market.
