By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
As of 18:45 UTC on 21 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?” at 85%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate video games from any genre that exists today in 2023. The generated games should be comparable in quality to games created by 'AA' mid market studios in (or before) the year 2023. Some examples: "make me a multiplayer arena shooter in set in zero g" "make me a fantasy rpg with branching choices using a combat system inspired by D&D" "make me a voxel based open world exploration game based around crafting" "make me a mindbending puzzle game that uses perspective and time as central mechanics" The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist. EDIT #1: I will not bet on this market. Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator confirmed that for the market to resolve to YES, the AI system must be able to generate games from any genre. This explicitly includes more challenging genres, such as puzzle games. Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that coherent world sims via diffusion models would count as qualifying AI systems for this market's resolution criteria.