Will there be fighting in Crimea as part of the current war between Russia and Ukraine?

·World

RussiaUkraine

12%

vol cum

M22.5k

vol 24h

M0

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 30, 2030

The market resolves Yes if there is a front in Crimea at any stage before a peace settlement or a permanent ceasefire is established. This is only for fighting on land between conventional armies. Bombing, long-range artillery, sabotage activities, uprisings, assassinations etc. will not count as fighting. By Crimea I mean the borders of the administrative unit as seen by both Ukraine and Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-there-be-fighting-in-crimea-th)