US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
Resolution criteria This market resolves YES if the United States and Iran reach and formally announce a new nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both the U.S. State Department and Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or equivalent government bodies. The agreement should address Iran's nuclear program and include verifiable commitments on uranium enrichment levels and/or stockpile limits. Partial agreements, frameworks, or non-binding statements do not qualify—the deal must constitute a formal, binding accord on nuclear matters. Background Iran said talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, building on a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at averting war between the two sides. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal. The developments underline the international effort to ease Middle East tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump threatens the Islamic Republic with military action if it doesn't reach an agreement to curb its nuclear program. Since May 2019, Iran has continued to violate the terms of the JCPOA agreement. It has lifted the cap on its stockpile of uranium, which is now 30 times the level permitted; increased its enrichment activities to 60%, significantly beyond the 3.67% permitted under the JCPOA. I will not bet in this market to remain objective over the terms of such a nuclear deal. Update 2026-06-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A formal announcement of a nuclear deal is adequate, but an announcement that a deal will be reached at some future date is not adequate. A peace deal that does not reach any agreements on key nuclear topics will not qualify. The deal does not need to pass all reasonable doubts (e.g., concerns about whether past deals were honored are not relevant to resolution).
