What is the current probability for "Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?"?

"YES" is currently 1% on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 3/1/2030.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/cveYb1fseam3CipCO3vd. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2030?

·Science and Technology

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

M15.1k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Mar 1, 2030

YES 1¢

NO 99¢

Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2030, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question. Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4 (this question) @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8 Space exploration questions: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285 @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580 @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c @/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58 Other questions for 2030: @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 @/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440 Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502

timeline

opened · Dec 22, 2023opencloses · Mar 1, 2030

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