What is the current probability for "Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?"?

"YES" is currently 96% (+1pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/dERC8cuINn. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

p|datav0.1 news294

opentrade on Manifold

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marketsingle market

Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6?

96%

▲ 0.9pp

24h change

vol cum

M17.1k

vol 24h

M13.1k

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2026

YES 96¢

NO 4¢

No resolution rules provided by manifold yet.

timeline

opened · Sep 3, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history