Question 1

What is the current probability for "Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?": Other 26%, J.D. Vance 17%, Gavin Newsom 15% (top 3 of 19 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/30/2028.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/dMtom4emJ75kw6cWz7y2. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?

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