Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?
Basically, will Trump (or anyone else) SUCCEED in making the election very different in some way? I am talking: Trump running again (not just try to, not just a write in campaign, actually having his name on ballot papers) Falsified election results (on a large scale, not just localised corruption or errors with voting machines) The election not occurring at all during 2028 I may make an exception if it's legitimately postponed, but definite no resolution if there is no election by July 4 2029 per the comments no US elections have been postponed for more than 150 years, so this is a very high bar This postponement must be for a very good reason - a severe, widespread natural disaster, pandemic worse than covid, etc No peaceful transfer of power e.g. Trump is escorted out of the White House by force Major restrictions in who can vote which in practice prevents a large number of citizens from voting not just simply voter ID requirements, not just trans people being unable to vote if their gender markers don't match eg women who have changed their names due to marriage being ineligible as people are expressing concern about at the time of writing in early 2025 The USA ceasing to exist (being annexed by Canada, asteroid impact, unfriendly AI, being renamed to Trumpland or Freedomia, etc) A state being removed or split in two for election manipulation reasons A new president because Trump died (natural causes or otherwise) or resigned won't count unless it's as part of a civil war or something similarly unprecedented Nor will Trump being forcibly removed from the presidency due to the 25th amendment (being declared unfit), unless it is part of a thinly veiled coup Any changes to election related laws/constitutions to allow things that weren't previous allowed, or ban things that weren't previously banned e.g. raising the minimum presidential age to 80 Manipulating the line of secession in some way Basically anything "weird" that hasn't happened in the past 100-150 years, that relates to the integrity of the process So eg the candidates wearing funny hats, though weird and hasn't happened, wouldn't count Attempts of any of the above don't count, the election (or the transfer of power after) has to be affected. And nothing that is precedented counts, either. So the following don't count: the supreme court rejecting a request from Trump to get a third term routine gerrymandering protests or civil unrest related to the election, unless it is severe and widespread a candidate claiming the election was illegitimate/stolen and advocating for violence, if said violence does not eventuate Will resolve "YES" one week after the uneventful inauguration of new president, or "NO" prior as required. Resolution source for facts will be an unbiased news source, I am thinking the BBC, or if the NYT and Fox News agree on it we can probably assume it's true. Please request clarification in the comments! As with all my long-term markets, if I stop using manifold I encourage another user who seems to know what I'm getting at to "adopt" the market, answer questions, and tell mods how to resolve when appropriate. The intention is to gauge the risk of the fears that "America will become a dictatorship" in something resembling an objective way Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Normal Elections Clarification All previous elections this century are considered normal, including Biden’s election despite the January 6th insurrection. An election would be marked as abnormal if an insurrection or similar event had directly resulted in a seizure of power (for example, if Trump had taken power as a result). Update 2025-02-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Clarification on State Changes: Existing statehood movements (e.g. Washington DC statehood or similar proposals) do not count as unprecedented changes affecting the election. Only new, campaign-driven proposals that aim to redefine state borders (such as a Democrat-led campaign to split a state like California into multiple states for electoral college reasons) will be considered unprecedented for the purposes of the market resolution. Update 2025-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Write-in Candidate Wins A win by any candidate through a write-in vote (including Trump) will resolve the market as NO because it is considered unprecedented. Territorial Annexation and State Changes Annexation of additional territories (e.g., Greenland or Canada) is considered normal unless it is done explicitly for the purpose of electoral manipulation. Changes involving the addition or removal of states will only be deemed abnormal if they are clearly campaign-driven and intended to affect the election process. Update 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Assassination Clarification Assassination events are treated as normal, consistent with historical precedents. Exception: If the assassination is an inside job or triggers a civil war (or a similarly unprecedented political upheaval), it will be considered abnormal.
