Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
As of 07:56 UTC on 27 Jul 2026, Manifold prices “Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?” at 64%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 18 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Gemini, Opinion and Limitless.
Political supporters of both 2024 party frontrunners Donald Trump and Joe Biden have claimed the other candidate is undemocratic in one way or another. Many have said the outcome of the 2024 election will determine the fate of American democracy. I decided to make this question to put this to the test: How likely do we actually think the end of democracy will occur in the next four years? I understand this is an extremely contentious topic so I want to be specific about criteria. This question will only resolve YES if the following conditions are met: The election has to happen. There will be no incidents of manipulation of ballots by public or private actors which has the capacity to change the result of the election. Examples of this include counting ballots fraudulently, failing to count ballots, or creating new ballots. There will be no incidents of illegitimate persuasion by public or private actors in regards to voting which has the capacity to change the result of the election. This includes things like physical intimidation, bribery or blackmail. There will be no incidents of state electors voting in a manner incongruent with the popular vote of their state which has the capacity to change the result of the election. The winner of the presidential election will be allowed to take office in a peaceful transfer of power. Because many of these criteria will take time to determine, I'm setting this question to resolve a year after election day on 2028
