Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/dnL9sR88ns. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?": Yes 59%, No [Anthropic < SpaceX] 32%, No [Anthropic does not IPO in 2026] 7% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/dnL9sR88ns. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Will Anthropic have the largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

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