Rogue AIs before 2028?

Manifold·Science and Technology

As of 00:04 UTC on 24 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Rogue AIs before 2028?” at 74%. The market has M$2 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

Will there be AI agents operating autonomously without human control that cannot be shutdown before 2028? The spirit of this question is trying to operationalize AI agents "escaping the box" and becoming free. I'll try to resolve in this spirit. Deliberate release of rogue AIs would still count. Note that this condition doesn't necessarily require AI agents to exfiltrate their own weights.