What is the current probability for "Rogue AIs before 2028?"?

"YES" is currently 60% (-2pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/g0pyRzURty. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

p|datav0.1 news201

opentrade on Manifold

↗

marketsingle market

Rogue AIs before 2028?

60%

▼ 1.7pp

24h change

vol cum

M11.1k

vol 24h

M11.1k

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2027

YES 60¢

NO 40¢

No resolution rules provided by manifold yet.

timeline

opened · Aug 31, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2027

Rogue AIs before 2028? · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history