Question 1

What is the current probability for "What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030": Nvidia 21%, SpaceX 12%, Alphabet 11% (top 3 of 27 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/2/2030.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/gecE573T0lHezY5LaiN9. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030

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