Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?
As of 01:53 UTC on 17 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?” at 31%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, Gemini and Predict.
The last election was in 2005. Future elections have been "postponed indefinitely" by current president Mahmoud Abbas. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Palestinian_presidential_election Must be recognized internationally as a valid and fair election for the leadership of the State of Palestine (particularly by the UN and leaders of western nations). Doesn't necessarily need to be called a "presidential election". Disqualifying some potential candidates (Like Hamas) is ok. I will not be betting on this market. This market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question if there is ambiguity.
