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event10 outcomes

September 2026 AI model releases

Manifold·Science and Technology·ends Sep 30, 2026
vol cum
M11.7k
vol 24h
M2.5k
outcomes
10
ends
Sep 30, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
showing 5 of 10

This market resolves YES for each AI model that receives an official public release during August 2026. A release counts as available to users if it is widely made available through official channels (API, web interface, download, or official partnership). A US only release is enough to count as widely available. Subvariants are model releases that share the same tier name (e.g., Flash Preview, Flash Live, Flash Instant, Flash Image all count for "Gemini 3.1 Flash"; 5.5-Thinking, 5.5-Instant, 5.5-Nano, 5.5-Pro all count for "GPT5.5"). Releases with a distinct tier name (Flash-Lite, Flash, Pro as a separate tier, etc.) do NOT count for an adjacent tier, even within the same model family. When in doubt, I'll use the official model name the company uses to classify it. I will count any model release by OpenAI better than GPT-5.6 Sol for the GPT-5.7 option, even if they change the naming. Previous Months: @/prismatic/august-2026-ai-model-releases @/prismatic/july-2026-ai-model-releases @/prismatic/june-2026-ai-model-releases @/prismatic/march-2026-ai-model-releases @/prismatic/april-2026-ai-model-releases

openaitechnical-ai-timelinesaitechnology-defaultai-model-releases
marketselected outcome
GPT-5.7 or GPT-6
rank #1
100¢
· 0.0pp
24h change
vol cum
M4.5k
vol 24h
spread
n/a
ends
Sep 30, 2026
timeline
opened · Sep 5, 2026opencloses · Sep 30, 2026
GPT-5.7 or GPT-6 · prices over time
−24h
now
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