Was the January 29, 2025 mid-air collision caused by a DEI hire?
Resolves based on official investigation results Must have caused = contributed, even partially AND must have been a DEI hire, defined as person who became a pilot, air traffic controller, soldier or another relevant occupation as a result [see the clarifications for how this will be determined] of the DEI policies. In case of doubt may resolve to a PROB. Examples: a cripple or mentally ill traffic controller hired during Biden will be a 100% yes a trans helicopter pilot will be 50-100% YES (depending on whether and for how long they served before transitioning) a black female immigrant traffic controller hired 30 years will be a NO others will be considered on a case by case basis Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications: Focus exclusively on whether a person with DEI-like characteristics was involved in the incident. Do not assess whether the mistake would have been avoided by a non-DEI hire. Do not evaluate the individual's actual qualifications; only their membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered. Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor. No assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies. DEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications. Refer to official policies: For details on DEI policies that privilege hiring of specific categories, refer to President Trump's executive order. Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications: Targeted disabilities include: Hearing Vision Missing extremities Partial paralysis Complete paralysis Epilepsy Severe intellectual disability Psychiatric disability Dwarfism Non-competitive hiring method: Managers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided. Update 2025-01-30 (PST): - Transgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2025-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications: Resolution based on DEI characteristics: The market will be judged solely on whether the individual has characteristics that DEI policies favor. No assessment of hiring cause: Do not determine whether the individual was hired as a result of DEI policies. DEI-favored groups focus: Only the individual's membership in DEI-favored groups will be considered, not their actual qualifications. Targeted disabilities include: Hearing Vision Missing extremities Partial paralysis Complete paralysis Epilepsy Severe intellectual disability Psychiatric disability Dwarfism Non-competitive hiring method: Managers can fill vacancies through the On-the-Spot hiring process for Veterans and/or individuals with disabilities, given the required documentation is provided. Transgender individuals in military roles: Under Executive Order 14004, transgender soldiers (e.g., helicopter pilots) are included in DEI initiatives focusing on diversity and inclusion. Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update: If the individual is found to have contributed to the incident but was allowed to serve due to DEI policies and is not strictly a DEI hire, the market will resolve to a high PROB (over 50-80%) instead of a definitive yes. Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Causation Assessment: The resolution will consider a linear combination of probabilities corresponding to several contributing actors. Privilege Scores: Each contributing actor's probability will be weighted by the reciprocal of their Privilege Scores. Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Understaffing Factor Clarification: Understaffing Situation: If understaffing due to DEI is identified as a contributing factor, Enforcement Role Assessment: and the person enforcing the quotas is not a DEI hire, Resolution Outcome: then the resolution will be a NO. Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market Extension: The market has been extended for another year as no final report has been released and a lawsuit is ongoing. Resolution will await the final report.
