Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?
Yes 8% on Manifold as of 21:32 UTC on 13 Nov 2026 for “Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2026?”. The market has M$50 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 23 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.
Similar terms as https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-i-think-all-ai-hell-broke-loos. Resolves based on my personal sense of all AI hell. Three times as much AI-driven change as happened in 2025 is not sufficient. Different factions of the US army having tank battles, after being persuaded by different AIs, is sufficient but not necessary. If everyone is dead, this market should conceptually resolve N/A. See other Q&As in the first market. Update 2026-03-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the AI 2027 scenario: the creator considers July (when Agent-3-mini is released publicly, AGI is declared, massive job disruption occurs, and bioweapon capability is confirmed) as the earliest point in that narrative that would count as AI hell breaking loose. Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market can resolve before the close date if the creator is certain AI hell has broken loose. A lack of resolution means the creator is not yet certain that AI hell has broken out.
