If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?
Background The United States has been a significant supporter of Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022. Recently, there have been diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. has temporarily paused and then resumed military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine as part of these diplomatic maneuvers. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has confirmed that the U.S. has resumed military assistance and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The U.S. administration has indicated it will present proposals discussed with Ukraine to Russian officials, suggesting ongoing diplomatic pressure on Russia to agree to a ceasefire. President Trump has expressed a desire for a ceasefire but has also acknowledged that if Russia refuses, the conflict could continue. European allies continue to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if, following Russia's rejection of or failure to agree to the proposed ceasefire, the United States: Announces new military aid packages for Ukraine Increases the value or scope of existing military assistance Expands intelligence sharing or other non-military support that directly aids Ukraine's war efforts The market will resolve to NO if: Russia rejects the ceasefire and the U.S. maintains current levels of support without increases The U.S. reduces support for Ukraine despite Russia's rejection of the ceasefire The U.S. withdraws support entirely For clarity, "more assistance" means an increase in quantity, quality, or scope of aid compared to what was being provided immediately before Russia's rejection of the ceasefire proposal. Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the condition of Russia's "failure to agree" to a proposed ceasefire: This will be considered to have occurred if Russia does not meaningfully agree within 6 months of a ceasefire proposal being on the table. This 6-month period will be reset if Ukraine attacks Russia. Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The meeting on August 15th will not be considered a "proposed ceasefire" for the purposes of this market's resolution criteria. Update 2025-11-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will continue indefinitely until there is a strong news article regarding a ceasefire proposal, after which the creator will wait to see if Russia agrees or not. The market will not resolve to N/A due to extended waiting periods.
