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Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?

Manifold·World
Venezuela

As of 23:20 UTC on 29 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026?” at 20%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

20%
vol cum
M24.3k
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Mar 2, 2027
YES 20¢
NO 80¢

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Venezuela's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report (which has yet to be published, but should come out in early 2026). If Venezuela's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO. See also: @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh 🇺‍🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari 🇺‍🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y 🇨🇳 @/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria-tQRh2Cq2Rq 🇷‍🇺 @/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari-IdZ9S8n2OC 🇩‍🇪 @/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar-2yzt80C9Ed 🇮‍🇳 @/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria-stcugnnShp 🇬‍🇧 @/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more-RttphEh6ud 🇫‍🇷 @/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari-06qZItS55S 🇨‍🇦 @/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari-yCclsR29cz 🇺‍🇦 @/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar-8tlNEgnpyI 🇮‍🇱 @/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari-CuIZNEQL8O 🇹🇷 @/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari-UhPcCICSps 🇵‍🇱 @/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari-dlShlu0Ih5 🇦‍🇷 @/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit-ySct8hSZOz 🇿‍🇦 @/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho-uhLnQ6Zq90 🇲‍🇽 @/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari-q6pQlLttpt 🇵‍🇰 @/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita-Zyp086uApR 🇮‍🇷 @/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian-dq20gc8u2I 🇯🇵 @/cash/will-japan-become-more-authoritaria-NQQs2s0PEs 🇰🇷 @/cash/will-south-korea-become-more-author-zsypSd8Eu2 🇻‍🇪 @/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit-55hEzs2ls9 (this question)

timeline
opened · Jan 6, 2026opencloses · Mar 2, 2027
Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2026? · prices over time
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