Question 1

What is the current probability for "In what year will an AI be named Time Person of the Year?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "In what year will an AI be named Time Person of the Year?": Other 25%, Never 10%, 2040 7% (top 3 of 20 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on Jan 1, 2031.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/lVBkIfoUWnTXVmLewsaD. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

In what year will an AI be named Time Person of the Year?

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