Question 1

What is the current probability for "If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?" from manifold. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 11/4/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/rP0gSkoCniNTeQmDagJU. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Markets

If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?