Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)": Threads 72%, Twitter / X 17%, TikTok 9% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/rarJYJp0X4NGmA4zeTki. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)

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