Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?"?

Accepted Answer

pdata aggregates live probability data for "Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?" from manifold. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 12/31/2039.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/sADm1xW1khKRjghUtzvH. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Markets

Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?