Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 06:46 UTC on 3 Jun 2026, Manifold prices “Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?” at 82%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.

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Jan 1, 2030

"Adult" here will mean anyone over 21, not 18, since we already have laws preventing <21-year-olds from doing certain things to their body, like smoking or drinking. The ban must be for existing types of gender-affirming care, not something new and experimental. (Medical interventions only, not stuff like name changes, dress, or pronoun usage.)