What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?
As of 21:33 UTC on 11 Nov 2026, “≥3x” leads “What will be the METR AI coding uplift multiple in 2026?” on Manifold at 64% (-1pp in 24h), followed by “2-2.5x” at 7% and “1.4-1.6x” at 7%, out of 10 outcomes. The event has M$3.4k in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
This market matches Developer Productivity: METR Uplift Study from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest. See other manifold questions here [image]Resolution criteria Resolves to the speedup multiple (time_taken_by_developers_without_AI / time_taken_by_developers_with_AI) reported by the most recent METR uplift study published in 2026 using the same or clearly comparable methodology. If METR reports percent change in time taken instead (time_taken_by_developers_with_AI / time_taken_by_developers_without_AI - 1) as they did for their 2025 study, we will convert using: speedup = 1 / (1 + percent_change_in_time_taken). If no METR uplift study is published in 2026, this question's outcome will be marked ambiguous. If multiple comparable METR uplift studies are published in 2026, the resolver may decide which one is most representative of the end of 2026 software development speedup, at their discretion (this would be the one published later in 2026, unless there was reason to believe it was less comparable to the 2025 study than an earlier one). Eli Lifland is responsible for final judgment on resolution decisions. Buckets are left-inclusive: e.g., 1.2-1.4x includes 1.2x but not 1.4x.