What is the current probability for "AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?"?

"YES" is currently 15% (-2pp in the last 24h) on Manifold, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Sep 30, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/uSszNlgR0d. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?

·Science and Technology

15%

▼ 2.5pp

24h change

vol cum

M19.7k

vol 24h

M24k

spread

n/a

ends

Sep 30, 2026

YES 15¢

NO 85¢

Millennium Prize Problems - Wikipedia Must not have already been solved by humans. The substantial work must be done by an AI system Human assistance to the AI is allowed AI assistance to humans is not sufficient for resolution Update 2026-09-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market resolves based on the announcement of a solution in September 2026. Resolves YES if a valid solution is announced in September 2026, even if the actual solving occurred earlier (e.g., in August). Resolves NO if September 2026 ends with no announcement of a solution.

timeline

opened · Sep 5, 2026opencloses · Sep 30, 2026