Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?
As of 15:05 UTC on 13 Aug 2026, Manifold prices “Will AI create utopia for humans by the year 2100?” at 61%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold.
Essential prerequisites of utopia for humans: - Aging is abolished for at least 99% of humans. - Involuntary suffering is abolished for at least 90% of humans. - Average annual risk of death for humans falls below 1/2000. - No dystopian unintended consequences such as "everyone is hooked up to a heroin dispenser" or "a significant fraction of the population is killed and uploaded as slave against their will". Here "utopia" should be understood as something relatively non-demanding. Becoming a multi-planetary species is, for example, not necessary. Neither is mind uploading. Neither is abolishing death or suffering altogether. The only necessary requisites are the ones listed above. I understand the definition is still vague, especially because of the last requisite, but I'm OK with predictors filling the remaining gaps and potentially predicting according to conflicting definitions of utopia.