Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?
To summarize: This market resolves to "Yes" if Bryan Caplan wins and the AI fails his exams. This market resolves to "No" if Matthew Barnett wins and the AI passes Caplan's exam Details here: https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet By January 30, 2029, Bryan Caplan will give his six most recent midterm exams to an AI selected by Matthew Barnett. The AI will be instructed to take those exams. Bryan will then grade the AI's work, as if it were one of his students. The AI will be allowed to do each exam only once. If the AI gets an A on at least 5 of out 6 of those exams using same grading scale as his students, then Bryan owes Matthew $500. Otherwise, Matthew owes Bryan $500. For the purpose of this bet, an A- counts as an A. Matthew will prepay the $500 in January 2023; the preceding terms have been pre-adjusted to compensate Matthew for expected inflation. If Matthew suspects that an exam was flawed or grading was unfair, he can appeal to Alex Tabarrok, or another economist agreed upon by both parties, who has final authority to exclude an exam from the pool and replace it with Bryan’s most recent preceding midterm. If more than four exams in total are excluded, the bet is called off and Matthew receives his $500 back. If either party is unable to comply with the terms due to death or incapacity, Bryan’s heirs keep the $500. If the bet is called off, I will resolve as "N/A". That way we can focus the predictions on whether the AI can actually pass the exams rather than on whether it's unresolvable or whether the participants die prematurely.
