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When will the human population drop below 1 billion · After 2100 76% — Manifold odds
markets
·
Health
open
trade on
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event
10 outcomes
When will the human population drop below 1 billion
·
Health
·
ends Jan 1, 2100
W
vol cum
M12.7k
vol 24h
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outcomes
10
ends
Jan 1, 2100
outcomes
click to inspect →
A
After 2100
76¢
· 0.0
pp
N
Never
7¢
· 0.0
pp
S
2040s
5¢
· 0.0
pp
S
2030s
4¢
· 0.0
pp
S
2050s
3¢
· 0.0
pp
showing 5 of 10
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human-population-crisis
human-population
population
ai-safety
technical-ai-timelines
nuclear
ai
world-war-iii
market
selected outcome
After 2100
rank #1
A
76¢
· 0.0
pp
24h change
vol cum
M174
vol 24h
M0
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2100
No resolution rules provided by manifold yet.
timeline
opened
· Jun 29, 2023
open
closes
· Jan 1, 2100
prices over time · After 2100 highlighted
24h
7d
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all
−24h
now
volume · by outcome
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manifold
When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?
Before 2069
93
¢
· 0.0
pp
Before 2068
92
¢
· 0.0
pp
Before 2067
91
¢
· 0.0
pp
+42 others
M0 24h · 45 markets
kalshi
Will any U.S. state experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?
yes
16
¢
· 0.0
pp
$0 24h · 1 market
manifold
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
yes
3
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
manifold
Will humanity survive until 2100?
yes
90
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
manifold
By the start of 2033, will at least a billion people be alive?
yes
92
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
manifold
Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?
yes
37
¢
· 0.0
pp
M0 24h · 1 market
+6 more