What is the current probability for "Fed rate hike in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 63% (-3pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/9/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/101936. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Fed rate hike in 2026?

·Economy

United States

63%

▼ 3.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$6.3M

vol 24h

$74.7k

spread

0.01

ends

Dec 9, 2026

Yes 63¢

No 38¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

CPI ReleaseFedEconomic PolicyJerome PowellEconomyFed RatesMacro Single

timeline

opened · Dec 10, 2025opencloses · Dec 9, 2026

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