Polymarket·Science and Technology·ends Nov 1, 2026
As of 22:33 UTC on 7 Oct 2026, “October 18” leads “Gemini Argon released on...?” on Polymarket at 13%, followed by “October 24” at 12% (+2pp in 24h) and “October 28” at 12% (+2pp in 24h), out of 25 outcomes. The event has $3.4k in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world tracks it alongside markets from 8 prediction-market platforms.
vol cum
$3.5k
vol 24h
$3.4k
outcomes
25
ends
Nov 1, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
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AITechArgonGeminigoogleAI Releases
marketselected outcome
October 18
rank #1
13¢
▼ 0.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$140
vol 24h
$140
spread
0.23
ends
Oct 19, 2026
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public.
Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
