How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?
Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 19, 2026
As of 04:06 UTC on 10 Oct 2026, “0” leads “How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?” on Polymarket at 48% (+24pp in 24h), followed by “1” at 35% (-4pp in 24h) and “2” at 20% (-3pp in 24h), out of 7 outcomes. The event has $238 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 22 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Gemini.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
