As of 04:06 UTC on 10 Oct 2026, the highest-priced of the 2 markets in “Russia lifts diesel export ban by...?” on Polymarket are “October 30” at 82% (+34pp in 24h) and “October 15” at 74% (+26pp in 24h). The event has $258 in Polymarket-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Polymarket, Kalshi and Manifold.
vol cum
$258
vol 24h
$258
outcomes
2
ends
Oct 31, 2026
outcomesclick to inspect →
OilRussiadieselPoliticsCommoditiesGeopolitics
marketselected outcome
October 30
rank #1
82¢
▲ 33.5pp
24h change
vol cum
$80
vol 24h
$80
spread
0.12
ends
Oct 31, 2026
In 2026, the Government of the Russian Federation imposed a temporary ban on exports of diesel fuel by fuel producers, which has since been extended several times, most recently through October 31, 2026 (see: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-30/russia-extends-diesel-export-ban-by-a-month-through-october).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Government of the Russian Federation issues a decree, resolution, or equivalent official action lifting, suspending, or terminating its ban on diesel fuel exports by fuel producers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The ban refers to the temporary prohibition on exports of diesel fuel by Russian fuel producers, most recently extended through October 31, 2026. A qualifying action that permits producers to export diesel fuel only to certain destinations, including the addition or expansion of exemptions for supplies under intergovernmental agreements, will qualify. Exports under exemptions already in effect at market creation will not qualify. Relief applying only to marine fuel or other gas oils, and not to diesel fuel, will not qualify.
Actions affecting only separate restrictions, including restrictions on diesel exports by entities other than fuel producers or restrictions on gasoline exports, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying action relating to the producer diesel export ban. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that the ban may be lifted in the future will not qualify without a qualifying official action.
Actions which provide partial or full relief from the ban will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must permit Russian fuel producers to export diesel fuel, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of the ban will qualify.
Once a qualifying action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reinstatement of the ban.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the Russian Federation.
